This Is the Make-or-Break Window for Sellers

For sellers launching a listing this summer, initial pricing can make all the difference between sparking a bidding war for top dollar or having to offer concessions and settling for below asking price.

According to a new Realtor.com® economic research team report, timing is key, and the first four weeks of active listing are the definitive make-or-break window for sellers.

Selling a home typically follows a familiar pattern: The owner starts by looking at comparable homes (comps) that have sold recently in their market and sets an initial asking price within that range. 

If the price is too low, offers may come in at or above asking and a bidding war may ensue. 

Conversely, if the listing price is too high, few or no offers may come in, eventually forcing the seller to slash the price to generate demand.

“Many sellers are still trying to float an aspirational price, seeing if they can find that one buyer to pay what the comps say is beyond reach,” Steve Jolly, broker at Benchmark Realty in Nashville, TN, tells Realtor.com. “The difficulty is that today’s buyers are savvier and do more homework.”

To quantify sellers’ decision-making around pricing, researchers used a sale-to-listing price ratio, which is the final sale price divided by either the initial or final asking price. A ratio above 1.0 signals a tight seller’s market where buyers have minimum leverage.  

Notably, the ratios vary by season, region, type of property, price tier, and broader market conditions.

Data shows a direct correlation between market time and profit: The longer a listing lingers, the lower the sale-to-listing price ratio drops.

This trend should come as no surprise to any real estate agent: Homes that sit on the market for extended periods are less likely to see an offer over the initial asking, often because it was too high. On the other hand, well-priced properties that trigger bidding wars and sell for higher than the listing price tend to be those that went under contract soon after hitting the market.

“Starting out too high and chasing the market down is never fun,” Melanie Muss, a broker associate at Douglas Elliman in Aspen, CO, tells Realtor.com. “Our sellers are smart and sophisticated, and I do believe they understand what happens when they list too high. Although many sellers think buyers will write offers if they want the property.”

When Realtor.com economists compared the sale-to-listing price ratio for homes that sold after different numbers of weeks on the market, they found that sellers saw the best results when their listing closed four weeks after coming on the market. 

“Whether homes are selling for above or below asking price, a home that closes four weeks after listing is likely to get a higher sale price than one selling in any other week after being listed,” says Realtor.com senior economistJoel Berner.

At the same time, the four-week mark is also when price cuts peak, underscoring that a listing’s first month is a pivotal point for the seller, driven by their initial pricing strategy.

“In nearly all markets right now, a properly priced home is going under contract in a matter of days. At three or four weeks on the market, the home has already sent a message to the market,” explains Jolly. “A price reduction will sell the house, but usually the seller won’t get the full amount they would have received with the correct starting price.”

A closer look at the numbers shows that homes that command the highest premiums relative to their listing price go under contract in the first two weeks.

On the flip side, sellers see the worst results when their home sells 18 weeks after being listed. Jolly says that buyer psychology plays a major part in this.

“Once a home is listed and stalls, the buyer, thinking quickly, moves from ‘Is this the one?’ to ‘What’s wrong with it?’ That is very difficult to overcome, even with price reductions,” explains the Nashville broker.

Kristina Quesada, an agent with the Yost Quesada Team at Douglas Elliman in San Diego, agrees, adding that once a listing is perceived as stale, future price cuts may be viewed by would-be buyers as a sign of weakness, rather than an opportunity.

“In many cases, sellers ultimately receive less than they would have if they had priced appropriately from the beginning,” she tells Realtor.com.

A look back at COVID-19 pandemic pricing

The report reveals that during the frenzied COVID-19 pandemic years of 2021 and 2022, the market was firmly in seller’s territory. Even during the typically slower winter months, the sale-to-last listing ratio topped 1.0, while during the bustling spring season it reached 1.03.

At that time, record-low mortgage rates turbocharged buyer demand, making price cuts rare and above-asking sales the norm.

“In that environment, pricing was often less important because buyer demand far exceeded available supply,” says Quesada. “Today’s market is much more balanced. Buyers are evaluating affordability, interest rates, and value more carefully than they have in years. As a result, pricing has returned to being one of the most powerful tools in a seller’s marketing strategy.”

Market analysis clearly reflects this shift: Since 2022, the sale-to-listing price ratio has plummeted. With recent peaks falling well below 1.0, buyers now hold more leverage, and the average home sells for less than both its first and final asking prices.

The problem with unrealistic expectations

Quesada and Jolly argue that for sellers today, overpricing carries a major risk of alienating buyers and causing the property to stagnate.

“Many sellers assume they can start high and reduce later if necessary, but that strategy often backfires,” warns the San Diego agent.

Jolly stresses that a successful seller is one who did their homework before listing, not after their home had been languishing on the market for two weeks.

Juliette Hohnen, an agent at Douglas Elliman in Los Angeles, offers a prime example of how strategic pricing rewards sellers.

 “My clients wanted to list at $3.75 million because they said it was their comp,” Hohnen tells Realtor.com. “I said we are in a slightly different market, but we could still get over $3.5 million if we priced at $3.5 million.”

The seller trusted Hohnen’s judgement and ultimately sold the home for $100,000 over asking. Meanwhile, two neighboring homes in worse condition—but listed at the same $3.5 million price—are still waiting for buyers.

This story serves as a reminder that the margin of error between correct and misguided pricing is razor-thin and carries major financial consequences.

“We’re in a precision market, and while correctly priced homes are still moving quickly and near ask, the market isn’t doing the sellers’ pricing work anymore,” concludes Jolly.

Quesada also reminds sellers that first impressions matter.

“The most successful sellers understand that the initial list price is often the most important marketing decision they will make,” she says. “The first two weeks on the market generate the highest level of buyer attention, and if a property misses the market during that window, it can be difficult to regain momentum later.”