Recent economic data shows the jobs market cooling, with weaker job growth contributing to concerns about broader economic weakness even as markets digest geopolitical shocks. At the same time, the ongoing Iran conflict is threatening global energy supplies, pushing crude oil prices above levels last seen in 2022 and stoking fears of an energy shock reminiscent of the last major commodity crisis. Analysts warn that disruptions to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz – a key route for about 20 % of the world’s oil – could keep energy prices elevated and feed inflationary pressures while slowing growth.
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