Case-Shiller Home Price Index: National Home Price Growth Holds Steady Through April

What does the data show?

The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed national home price growth holding near a standstill through April, with the U.S. National Index rising 0.8% year over year, up slightly from 0.7% in March. The 10-City Composite posted a 1.8% annual gain while the 20-City Composite rose 1.1%. This month’s release reflects sales closing from February through April, a period that began with the most favorable rate environment in over three years. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage briefly dipped below 6% in late February, then climbed back above 6.3% by the end of March and continued higher through April. Despite the brief window of relief, the spring selling season started slowly before gaining traction: existing-home sales rose 3.2% in May to a five-month high of 4.17 million, and pending home sales climbed 3.8% with a 4.8% year-over-year gain, signs that buyers and sellers are finding more common ground even as affordability headwinds persist.

How did trends vary by region?

Regional price trends remained fragmented, though the list of declining metros narrowed slightly from March. More than half of the 20 tracked metros continued to post year-over-year declines, marking the 11th consecutive month of that pattern. Seattle (-2.3%) remained the weakest performer, with Denver (-1.8%), Tampa (-1.8%), Phoenix (-1.7%), and Dallas (-1.6%) also in negative territory. Washington, D.C. (+0.2%) edged back into positive territory after slipping below zero in March, and Los Angeles (-0.5%) narrowed its decline. On the other side of that divide, Chicago (+6.5%) continued to lead, followed by New York (+3.8%) and Cleveland (+3.2%), with support from constrained resale supply. The nearly 9-percentage-point gap separating Chicago from Seattle underscores how localized this housing cycle has become. In markets where inventory has rebuilt more quickly, new construction continues to offer an increasingly competitive alternative, showing buyers of newly built homes can save an average of $25,000 in ownership costs over the first decade compared to older existing stock.

What is ahead for housing?

Looking ahead, mortgage rates have hovered near 6.5% for six consecutive weeks, pushed higher by renewed inflation concerns and elevated energy prices. The rate environment has shifted meaningfully from the brief sub-6% window earlier this year, introducing fresh headwinds as the summer market takes shape. At the same time, listing prices have fallen year over year for seven straight months, inventory is running above year-ago levels in many markets, and affordability has continued to subtly improve as incomes outpace home price gains. In supply-constrained markets, price growth is likely to hold even as the national picture continues to cool.