Pros don’t “have a good feeling.” They have a document—short, specific, falsifiable. One page forces clarity and exposes fluff.
What Belongs on One Page
- Snapshot: What the business does, who it serves, how it gets paid.
- Edge / Variant View: What you believe that’s different and testable.
- Drivers: 2–4 levers (units, pricing, mix, margins, TAM capture).
- Numbers that matter: Baseline metrics and 12–24 month targets.
- Valuation view: Simple lens with base/bear/bull.
- Risks & Invalidation: Specific kill‑switches; thesis time limit.
- Catalysts & Timeline: Product launches, capacity adds, pricing resets.
- Positioning: Entry zone, add‑on triggers, stop/hedge, target size.
- Monitoring: 3–5 KPIs and review cadence.
Template
Use the provided markdown template to structure your thesis.
Pressure-Test Your Page
- Red team: What would make a smart bear short this?
- Data sufficiency: You don’t need 80 slides; you need the right 8 numbers.
- Time‑bound conviction: If the catalyst window passes, re‑underwrite or exit.
More Readings
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